Putin Prepares for Large-Scale War With NATO by 2030, According to German Intelligence

Russia perceives its relationship with the West as a systemic conflict and is preparing for the possibility of a major conventional war against NATO by the end of the decade, according to a new joint report by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr, cited by BILD.

The report states that the Kremlin is willing to use military force to achieve its strategic objectives. While Russia’s forces remain heavily engaged in Ukraine, its air force and navy reportedly retain combat readiness. The assessment suggests that once the war in Ukraine ends, Russian military units could be rapidly redeployed to NATO’s eastern flank, particularly near the Baltic states.

Despite current limitations, the Lithuanian State Security Department estimates that while Moscow is not currently capable of attacking the full NATO alliance, it may attempt a limited military operation against one or more member states to test the alliance’s resolve and response mechanisms.

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German intelligence further warns that Russia’s military losses are being replenished and its defense industry is producing equipment beyond the needs of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“Russia’s military spending is rising at a record pace — projected to reach approximately €120 billion in 2025, equivalent to over 6% of GDP,” the report notes.

Compared to 2021, the Russian defense budget has effectively quadrupled. The Kremlin reportedly plans to increase army personnel to 1.5 million and expand weapons and military assets near NATO borders by 30–50%.

In an interview published on March 28, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone stated that the goal in Ukraine is to end hostilities across the entire country and secure a just peace, however, a flawed peace can be worse than no peace at all.