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Russia Eyes New Buffer Zone in Vinnytsia Region via Transnistria, Ukraine Warns
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Russian forces are considering plans to establish a buffer zone in Ukraine’s Vinnytsia region from the direction of the unrecognized Transnistrian region.
Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President and a brigadier general, disclosed the assessment in an interview with RBC-Ukraine on April 7.
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“They (the Russians) have even included a point about creating a buffer zone in the Vinnytsia region from the side of the unrecognized Transnistria. This is the first time such plans of this nature have been recorded,” Palisa said. “Frankly, there is no need to panic, because at this moment I do not see them having the forces to implement all these intentions.”
Palisa noted that Russian plans remain fluid, with timelines for operations frequently shifting. He added that Moscow’s primary focus in 2026 is expected to remain on the Donbas.
“Without a doubt, their main attention this year will be concentrated on the Donbas. And also, under favorable conditions for them, they will develop and increase efforts in the southern direction—this includes the Oleksandrivsk area and the entire Zaporizhzhia axis,” he said.
According to Palisa, Russia continues to pursue plans to establish buffer zones in Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. He also warned that Moscow aims to create conditions for potential offensives in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and in the longer term, to pursue what he described as “aggressive ambitions” to seize Mykolaiv and Odesa regions.
These concerns are further amplified by reports of increased Russian activity in the Transnistrian region, which borders Ukraine and is seen as a potential staging ground for broader operations.
According to Defense Express, Moscow is considering a significant expansion of its military contingent in the breakaway region, potentially increasing troop numbers from around 1,500 to as many as 10,000 personnel.
The reported buildup comes alongside military exercises in the area. Russian forces in Transnistria recently conducted drills simulating a Soviet-era offensive operation, replicating the 1944 Jassy–Kishinev campaign that led to Soviet troops advancing into Bucharest.
The exercise took place in a demilitarized security zone near Tiraspol and involved multiple artillery systems and military vehicles, in what observers say constitutes a violation of existing bilateral and international agreements.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces continue to report gains on parts of the frontline.
Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces reported that Ukrainian troops have regained control of nine settlements and roughly 480 square kilometers along the Oleksandrivka axis. The areas retaken include seven settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk region and two in the Zaporizhzhia region.
The advance was led by Air Assault units with support from other formations, aiming to restore positions affected since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. In addition to these nine locations, three more settlements have been cleared of Russian presence, with stabilization operations still underway.
Military officials said Ukrainian forces currently hold the initiative in this sector. At the same time, Russian units are attempting to hinder further progress through localized counterattacks and by shifting reinforcements from other parts of the front.
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