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Russia’s National Wealth Fund Could Run Dry Within a Year, Gazprombank Analysts Warn
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Russia’s liquid reserves in the National Wealth Fund (NWF) could be exhausted within 1.3 years if current oil prices persist, analysts from Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Forecasting warned in a new report published on January 29.
As of early 2026, the fund held 4.1 trillion rubles in unspent assets—primarily foreign currency and gold managed by the Central Bank. These reserves are used by the government to cover shortfalls in oil and gas revenues. However, analysts note that if the price of oil falls below $59 per barrel, the fund begins to be drawn down.
With oil prices hovering around $40 per barrel, the remaining funds would last just over a year. A sharper drop to $30–35 would mean the NWF could be depleted by the end of 2026. At $50 per barrel, reserves might stretch to 2.5 years, according to Gazprombank.
For reference, the average price of Urals crude stood at $39 in December 2025 and slipped further to $36–38 by the end of January.
In addition to oil prices, “other expenditures from the NWF” are also weighing on reserves. The federal budget for 2026–2028 includes 1 trillion rubles in infrastructure investments funded through the NWF.
Analysts suggest the approaching depletion timeline may force the government to revise its “cut-off price”—currently $59 per barrel—which determines when reserve spending begins. This would likely trigger adjustments to federal budget expenditures or alternative revenue strategies.
Before the war in Ukraine, the NWF held $113 billion in liquid assets—6.5% of GDP. By January 2026, that amount had shrunk to $52 billion, or 1.9% of GDP—a 2.5-fold decline.
Earlier, it was reported that Russian state-owned banks became the primary recipients of funds from the National Wealth Fund in 2025.
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