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Tech Force Ukraine: 2026 Will Define the Future of Ukraine’s Drone Industry
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![Photo of Cyril Barabaltchouk]( "Photo of Cyril Barabaltchouk")
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Ukraine’s private drone industry is entering a decisive phase in 2026, according to Tech Force Ukraine (TFUA) report on October 24, a coalition of defense-tech companies that unveiled its forecast at a Kyiv event this week.
As drone warfare continues to shape the war with Russia, the group says the country’s defense sector faces a crossroads: adapt and scale, or risk falling behind Moscow’s centralized industrial machine.
TFUA outlined three possible futures for Ukraine’s drone sector—stagnation, decline, or growth—depending on how effectively the government, military, and private manufacturers coordinate policy and funding.
In the best-case scenario, the industry could move from short-term survival to long-term stability through multi-year state contracts, export reform, and deeper integration with Europe’s defense networks.
But the organization warned that without predictable procurement and clear rules for foreign sales, companies may continue moving production abroad to Poland, Lithuania, or the Czech Republic—a trend that threatens to hollow out Ukraine’s domestic production base.
TFUA’s Executive Director Kateryna Mykhalko said the private sector’s progress remains “fragile but essential,” calling for transparent communication with the state and adherence to European standards.
A recent TFUA survey found that 70 percent of Ukrainian drone firms consider stable contracts key to survival, while more than a third are already exploring joint ventures overseas.
Frequent power outages, missile strikes on industrial hubs like Dnipro and Kharkiv, and fragmented regulation continue to hinder production at home.
TFUA’s report argues that innovation alone cannot sustain Ukraine’s drone advantage without structure and investment—a message aimed squarely at Kyiv’s policymakers as they look to rebuild an industrial base capable of matching Russia’s wartime scale.
Previously, it was reported that Ukraine’s FP-2 tactical strike drone has been equipped with an adapted OFAB-100-110-TU aerial bomb, increasing its payload capacity and destructive power.
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