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Ukraine Could Face Up to 20-Hour Daily Blackouts This Winter, Energy Experts Warn

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Ivan_khomenko
Ivan Khomenko
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Ukraine Could Face Up to 20-Hour Daily Blackouts This Winter, Energy Experts Warn
A worker walks past damaged equipment in the turbine hall of a power plant operated by DTEK, which was destroyed in an attack during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. April 19, 2024. (Source: Getty Images)

Ukraine is bracing for a challenging winter as energy experts predict widespread power shortages, with potential outages lasting up to 20 hours per day. This projection, highlighted by Politico, is contingent on severe winter temperatures and the vulnerability of Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure to further Russian attacks.

Source: REACH, June 2024, Giovanna Coi/POLITICO.
Source: REACH, June 2024, Giovanna Coi/POLITICO.

Since the Russia’s war agaist Ukraine began, each winter has posed difficulties for Ukraine, but the coming season could be unprecedented. According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Industry Research Center and advisor to the Ukrainian government, extended power outages are likely if temperatures drop significantly and further strikes hit Ukraine’s nuclear facilities. The consequences could be severe, impacting residential heating, essential war-related industries, and potentially prompting a new wave of Ukrainians seeking refuge abroad.

Energy analyst Gennadii Riabtsev estimates that even under the “most realistic” scenario, Ukraine may face electricity rationing with limited access to power for both industrial and residential needs, up to 14 hours per day. He adds that, despite efforts to restore damaged infrastructure, the threat of continued attacks remains high, partly due to insufficient multi-level air defense systems.

The urgency of Ukraine’s energy crisis has garnered international attention, with US officials warning of the grave risks posed by Russia’s sustained assaults on critical infrastructure. “We anticipate a very harsh winter,” one senior American official noted, emphasizing that lives could be lost if assistance is not provided promptly.

Russian forces have carried out over 1,000 attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, according to Energy Minister German Galushchenko. The assaults have affected all regions and types of energy facilities, resulting in a total loss of over 9 GW of energy capacity.

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