Assad Fled. Maduro Imprisoned. Khamenei Dead. What’s Left of Putin’s Global Alliance?

Iran and Russia signed a joint agreement in January 2025 on a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” The pact did not include direct obligations to defend one another in the event of an attack, but it did outline military cooperation, including assistance and arms sales. It was widely viewed as the beginning of a major alliance in a newly polarized world, with the Kremlin at its center. Among the participants were Belarus, North Korea, Iran, and others.

Those illusions faded quickly. On the very first day of the war in the Middle East, Moscow took only one step—expressing concern and sending Iran “words of support.” The real situation is even starker: the Kremlin is not troubled by events in Iran, but rather pleased with the consequences of the war.

Oil prices are rising, meaning Moscow stands to earn more.

For the third consecutive day, global media outlets have focused on the Middle East, quoting American leaders while paying less attention to developments in Ukraine.

No action should be expected from Putin. Over the past year, he has effectively lost two of his allies, unable to offer anything in response. Following Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, Putin has now also lost Iran’s leader, Ali Khamenei. The first fled to Moscow, the second sits in an American prison, and the third is dead.

At the same time, the direction of these countries themselves is changing.

Venezuela appears ready to transform from a US adversary into at least a trade partner. The government has expressed willingness to implement reforms, improve living standards, and invite partners to help develop the economy.

Syria’s path is not simple, but for now, the new government is attempting to lay the groundwork for rebuilding the country after a decade of war, while restoring relations with its neighbors.

Iranian society is also seeking change, as evidenced by yet another round of protests against government actions.

Putin is not accustomed to operating within a democratic change paradigm. Instead of easing restrictions, his government continues tightening controls. Western messaging platforms have already been blocked in Russia, and authorities are now reportedly considering blocking Telegram—a service historically regarded as Russian.

The rapid loss of allies directly demonstrates that Western countries have both the strength and the resolve to stand up when necessary, and that aggression will face resistance and be stopped.

Russian weaponry has also suffered a reputational blow. In Venezuela, air defense systems and other equipment supplied by Russia failed to counter US forces; not a single American service member was killed, and although one helicopter was damaged, its crew was rescued. Air defense systems reportedly intended for sale to Iran under a $500 million package also proved ineffective. A series of targeted US and Israeli strikes eliminated nearly the entire top leadership of Iran. Once again, this underscores that Russian weapons are not as effective as commonly portrayed.

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already stated that the United Kingdom will invite Ukrainian specialists to assist in intercepting Iranian drones attacking targets in the region. Ukraine’s expertise, gained during its long war against Russia, is now in demand worldwide.

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