Exactly A Month Ago, Ukraine Launched Its Operation in Russia’s Kursk. What Has Been Achieved?

The first reports of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in the Kursk region appeared on August 6, 2024. The advance developed rapidly, but there was almost no information: Ukraine’s military and political leadership chose a "silent mode," only going public a week later. The fog of war and the constantly changing situation made it difficult to understand what was happening on the battlefield. One thing was clear: Russia had failed to defend its own border, and Ukrainian forces were advancing swiftly.

As of early September, the intensity of fighting had significantly decreased, and no new operational updates were provided by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. It is currently known that Ukraine controls over 1,300 square kilometers of the Kursk region, including about 100 settlements. A military commander's office has been established to assist civilians with humanitarian aid and maintain order in these areas. 

Approximately 600 Russian soldiers have been taken prisoner and will be used as part of future prisoner exchanges. Overall, more than 6,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded over the course of the month of operations.

At the time of writing, there are no reports of any settlements being retaken by Russia.

Can the operation be considered successful?

This question was answered by both President of Ukraine Zelenskyy and  Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi himself. According to them, several key objectives pursued by the military and political leadership were achieved:

1. Preventing Russian attacks on the Sumy region. In May 2024, the Russians launched an offensive on a new section of the front in the Kharkiv region. The advance was halted, but as a result, the Ukrainian city of Vovchansk was completely destroyed by Russian forces. Ukraine anticipated a potential invasion of the Sumy region, so it acted preemptively. The operation in the Kursk region allowed Ukraine to protect its territories and push back the Russian army. "We don't need Russian territory; the operation is aimed solely at restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity," Zelenskyy added.

2. Reducing the offensive potential of Russian forces in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian military command's plan, to defend the Kursk region, Russia would be forced to transfer reserves from the Ukrainian front. This objective was gradually achieved. Syrskyi stated that since early September, the Russians had made no progress on the Pokrovsk front, one of the most challenging areas, and in some places, Ukraine had even launched counterattacks. Zelenskyy mentioned that Russia had been forced to redeploy up to 60,000 soldiers, including the most capable assault brigades, to the Kursk region. The time gained would allow Ukraine to better organize its defenses.

In his interview with NBC News, Zelenskyy also added that the Kursk operation was a military-diplomatic step that Ukraine would use in negotiations and to present its own "victory plan," which is being prepared for international partners.

In summary, Ukraine sees several successfully accomplished objectives in this operation. Zelenskyy, however, declined to answer whether Ukraine would continue to capture Russian territories.

Additionally, the Kursk operation sends a signal to the world. This concerns the so-called "red lines" often mentioned by Western politicians. For the first time since World War II, Ukraine initiated combat operations on Russian territory, and for the first time, a non-nuclear country attacked a nuclear one, as noted by The Wall Street Journal. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Azerbaijan and Mongolia and, at press conferences, preferred to ignore questions about the capture of over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory.

What’s next?

The future actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces remain unknown. Zelenskyy stated that similar operations are conducted in complete secrecy to prevent information leaks, so the military's next steps in the Kursk region or other territories are unclear.

According to Syrskyi, Ukrainian forces lack sufficient weapons, with deliveries from Western partners being slow and delayed: often promised on paper, but in reality still en route. This complicates planning and demoralizes the troops, creating numerous problems and challenges on the battlefield. Therefore, streamlining supplies and scaling up domestic weapons production programs are crucial components of future successful operations.

As of today, Ukraine plans to hold a second Peace Summit before the U.S. elections. Russia is expected to be invited, an idea supported by Ukraine’s partners. Ukraine’s victory plan is to make Russia end the war it started.