How the Skies Became the Latest Victim in Russia’s Shadow War

French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft was conducting operations over the Baltic Sea on January 15, 2025. Increased surveillance of the area had become a necessity: in the past three months, several energy and communication cables, as well as a gas pipeline, had been damaged in the region. As a result, NATO countries intensified their monitoring of the Baltic Sea to prevent further threats.

The Atlantique 2 became the target of Russian intimidation when it was illuminated by radar from an S-400 missile system, said French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

For Russia, such acts of sabotage are nothing new. The country has consistently been embroiled in incidents involving threats to civilian and NATO military aviation. Here are some examples:

The downing of an Azerbaijani Azal Airlines plane

On December 25, 2024, Russian forces shot down an Azerbaijani Azal Airlines plane, killing 38 of the 67 passengers on board. Initial explanations blamed the crash on birds allegedly striking the engine. However, images of the wreckage quickly confirmed that the plane had been struck by gunfire.

The Embraer 190 aircraft, operating a route from Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital, to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, Russia, was reportedly downed by a Russian Pantsir air defense system. Despite knowing that a large civilian passenger plane was in the airspace, Russian forces opened fire. It is suspected that the Pantsir system’s targeting mechanism was operating in an automatic mode, engaging all objects within range. However, military radars are capable of identifying large passenger planes following routes assigned by air traffic controllers.

The crash of a DHL cargo plane

On November 25, 2024, a DHL cargo plane crashed in Vilnius, Lithuania, killing one crew member and injuring three others.

While the investigation is ongoing, Lithuanian and German authorities have ruled out terrorism. Cockpit voice recordings revealed that the pilots were focused solely on work-related discussions, with no indication of foul play.

However, German intelligence officials suspect the crash is linked to Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. It is possible that packages containing incendiary devices caused the mechanical issues leading to the crash. Similar packages were discovered in the summer of 2024 at a DHL warehouse in Leipzig, Germany, and another facility in the UK.

Such actions are hallmarks of hybrid warfare, where the adversary avoids direct confrontation and instead relies on sabotage and covert operations to destabilize a region. Russia’s interference with communication cables in the Baltic Sea—impacting Finland, Estonia, Sweden, Germany, and other countries—is a prime example.

Jamming: A covert weapon in the Baltic and Black Seas

Another facet of Russia’s hybrid warfare is jamming. Using specialized equipment located in Crimea and Kaliningrad, Russian forces interfere with radio frequencies and disrupt GPS signals across both the Baltic and Black Sea regions.

This electronic interference creates significant challenges for aviation, including civilian flights, as systems display inaccurate coordinates. In the first two months of 2024, 985 GPS malfunction reports were recorded, compared to 1,371 for all of 2023.

Jamming also impacts maritime navigation, endangering vessels operating in the Baltic Sea.

These actions threaten not only military aviation and naval operations but also civilian navigation—putting passenger airlines, transportation fleets, and shipping at risk. Deliberately creating such hazards increases the likelihood of accidents.

Data points to Crimea in the Black Sea and Kaliningrad in Europe as the epicenters of these disruptions. For Russia, this is a calculated form of hybrid warfare, aimed at undermining the functioning of Europe’s transportation arteries.

Russia’s willingness to destabilize Europe by any means—be it destroying communication networks, conducting sabotage operations, or issuing direct threats like the one faced by the French patrol aircraft—marks a dangerous escalation. These actions are a deliberate show of force, underscoring Russia’s aggression not just toward Ukraine but toward Europe’s broader security as well.