Russia’s Seizure of Ukraine’s Lithium-Rich Territories Threatens Europe's Green Future

As part of its European Green Deal  and Fit for 55 Plan  the EU has identified lithium as a critical raw material under the Critical Raw Materials Act, aiming to reduce dependence on imports and secure local supplies. By 2030, Europe’s lithium demand is expected to surge dramatically, making access to reliable sources vital for achieving its carbon neutrality goals. Ukraine is a crucial potential supplier, with untapped lithium reserves estimated at 500,000 to over 760,000 tons. Other estimates even suggest Ukraine may hold over 33 million tons of lithium, valued at nearly $40 billion.

“Ukraine’s potential for lithium extraction is undeniable,” said Ksenia Orynchak, Executive Director of the National Association of Extractive Industries of Ukraine (NAEIM). “Based on reputable studies, our country is in the top three for lithium reserves, alongside Czechia and Serbia. Additionally, Ukraine’s geographic proximity to the EU offers a significant strategic advantage.”

Russia disrupting Ukraine’s lithium sector

Ukraine’s lithium wealth, concentrated in regions like the Ukrainian Shield  includes significant deposits such as the Shevchenko field of lithium ores. The lithium deposit, located near the town of Shevchenko in the Donetsk region, is now a focal point of heavy fighting. As of January 15, 2025, Russian forces control most of the town, with Ukraine holding only a small fraction.

The Shevchenko deposit spans 39.84 hectares and is one of the country's most valuable sites. Discovered in 1982, this deposit contains 90% lithium in its total reserves, with an average lithium oxide content of 1.24%. Despite its potential, much of Ukraine's lithium remains at the resource estimation stage, requiring further exploration and development to become economically viable.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has severely disrupted the country’s ability to capitalize on its lithium resources. Russian forces quickly seized control of a major lithium deposit in the Zaporizhzhia region early in the war. The threat to the Shevchenko deposit further undermines Ukraine’s access to this vital economic resource and halts mining operations. It also deters foreign investment, stalling Ukraine’s integration into Europe’s critical supply chains.

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The EU’s dependence on imported lithium

The EU’s heavy reliance on imported lithium—primarily from China, Chile, and Australia—makes Ukraine’s resources strategically important. Before the invasion, the EU was actively supporting Ukraine’s mining sector, providing financial and technical assistance to enhance extraction and infrastructure. With Ukraine’s reserves ranking fifth in Europe, the country was positioned to play a key role in strengthening Europe’s supply chain and reducing its dependence on distant suppliers.

Although Russia itself holds substantial reserves, including the Kolmozerskoe deposit in the Murmansk region with 75 million tons of lithium ore, the country remains dependent on imports to meet its growing domestic demand. By capturing Ukraine’s lithium-rich territories, Russia gains leverage in the global lithium market while simultaneously disrupting Europe’s efforts to secure a stable local supply.

Geopolitical importance of Ukraine’s mineral wealth

The geopolitical significance of Ukraine’s lithium cannot be overstated. Rod Schoonover, founder of the US-based Ecological Futures Group, suggests that while lithium may not have been a primary objective of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s mineral wealth is a critical strategic factor. Schoonover stated, "It may not be the motivation for the invasion, but there’s a reason why Ukraine is so important to Russia. And that’s its mineral base." 

If stability is restored, Ukraine’s lithium reserves could anchor Europe’s push toward energy independence and sustainability. However, the war has underscored the vulnerabilities of critical resource supply chains and the intersection of energy security and geopolitics. The battle for Ukraine’s lithium-rich territories highlights the broader stakes at play and the importance of securing resources essential for a decarbonized future.