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War in Ukraine

Ukraine's Near-Daily Strikes on Russian Military Targets Is a Major Shift in Drone and Missile Development

Ukraine's Near-Daily Strikes on Russian Military Targets Is a Major Shift in Drone and Missile Development

What was unthinkable a year ago—massive Ukrainian drone strikes on military and strategic targets deep in Russia—is now a daily headline.

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On January 23, Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan oil refinery, one of Russia’s largest with an annual capacity of 17 million tons of oil. 

Simultaneously, several other critical targets were hit, including the Kremniy EL microelectronics plant in Bryansk. The plant produces microchips for Russian weapons systems such as the Topol-M and Bulava missiles, S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, and aircraft.

Ukraine has not commented on the details of these operations. However, Russia's Defense Ministry reported allegedly shooting down 124 drones across 13 regions.

Two days earlier, on January 21, Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in the Voronezh region and an aviation plant near Smolensk. The Smolensk Aviation Plant manufactures Su-25 ground-attack aircraft. The Liskinsky oil depot in the Voronezh region was attacked for the second time in a week.

On January 20, Ukrainian drones targeted the Kazan Aviation Plant, one of Russia's largest aviation facilities and a producer of Tu-160 strategic bombers. Prior to that, on January 18, the oil depot in Lyudinovo, the Kaluga region, was hit.

The night of January 14 saw one of the largest Ukrainian assaults on Russian military targets to date. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported over 200 drones involved in strikes across 12 regions, claiming to have shot down 180. This attack included another strike on the Kristall oil depot, a key fuel storage facility for the Engels airbase, home to strategic bombers such as the Tu-95MS and Tu-160. The first strike on Kristall, on January 8, caused a fire that took five days to extinguish.

Expanding drone and missile production

Ukraine has maintained operational secrecy, refraining from disclosing specific details about the targets, operations, or weapons used. Nevertheless, reports indicate that domestically produced long-range drones and newly developed Peklo missiles were employed for some of these strikes.

In 2024, Ukraine produced 1.4 million drones, some of which were long-range models. Since summer 2024, the frequency and scale of massive drone attacks have steadily increased. By August and September, some strikes involved over 100 drones simultaneously.

Events in January 2025 demonstrate Ukraine’s further scaling of drone production, with hundreds manufactured monthly and used in these operations. 

Ukraine shares little information about its missiles, citing the secrecy of their development. However, the known plan aims for the production of 3,000 missiles by the end of 2025. Given that Ukraine exceeded its 2024 drone production target by 40%—originally set at 1 million—there is optimism that it will meet or surpass its long-range missile production goals. European partners have contributed financial support to these efforts.

Impact of deep strikes on Russia’s targets

Ukraine’s attacks on military targets deep into Russian territory, such as the January 23 strike on the Leningrad region—more than 700 kilometers from the Ukrainian border—expose significant vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defense systems.

For Ukraine, these strikes are strategically critical, targeting military infrastructure across Russia. Such attacks disrupt production timelines, hinder Russia’s ability to replenish its losses and weaken its military capacity. Strikes on oil refineries, like the one in Ryazan, aim to reduce Russia’s budget revenues. Repairing refineries takes months and depends on sanctioned foreign equipment, making these attacks all the more important.

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