Russia Escalates Baltic Tensions With Su-35 Jet Flyover and Ship Seizure in Apparent Revenge on Estonia

On May 18, Russia detained the Green Admire—a vessel owned by the Greek company Aegean Shipping—for the first time. The ship had departed from the Estonian port of Sillamäe and was en route to the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, carrying a shipment of shale oil. Such an incident had not occurred before.

The vessel was stopped by Russian naval forces while transiting Russian territorial waters, a common practice along this route. Estonia, Finland, and Russia have pre-approved the passage itself, as it is considered the safest due to its avoidance of shallow waters. A longstanding agreement between the three countries permits navigation along this corridor.

The detention has sparked serious concern, with no clear justification: the vessel has a legitimate, well-known owner, is not part of the shadow fleet, flies a recognized national flag, and had a fully documented route and cargo. Yet Russia, without warning, broke the standing agreement and seized the ship.

This appears to be yet another instance of intimidation, coercion, and retaliation.

Russian retaliation and the Su-35 fighter jet

It is likely that Russia’s actions were a response to an incident that occurred on May 13. On that day, the Estonian coastal patrol attempted to stop the Jaguar tanker, which was headed to the Russian port of Primorsk. The reason: the tanker was sailing without a national flag, which constitutes a violation — all vessels must fly the flag of a recognized country. The Jaguar is also listed on the UK sanctions roster and is considered part of Russia’s shadow fleet.

Baltic nations remain especially wary of shadow fleet vessels, largely due to environmental risks. These ships lack insurance from globally recognized companies, meaning that in the event of an emergency, such as an accident or an oil spill, liability and accountability are unclear. Russia routinely ignores these concerns.

To conduct the Jaguar inspection, the Estonian navy deployed military assets, including the patrol boat EML Raju, an AgustaWestland AW139 helicopter, and an M28 Skytruck aircraft. Radio contact was established with the tanker, and a request for documentation was made, following all standard procedures.

However, the Jaguar not only refused to stop or respond to the Estonian request, but it also threatened to ram the Estonian patrol vessel if its path was blocked.

The situation escalated dramatically, stunning European observers: Russia deployed a Su-35 fighter jet. The aircraft violated Estonian airspace, failed to establish radio contact or explain its presence, and moved in to cover the Jaguar. Such an incursion, carried out without prior warning, legally renders the Su-35 a valid target for interception or even engagement.

The Baltic Sea as a theater of hybrid warfare

Russia’s actions blatantly violate all existing cooperation agreements and international accords on interstate conduct. To threaten and intimidate, the Kremlin deploys fighter jets that breach foreign airspace and engage in dangerous maneuvers designed to provoke—a tactic reminiscent of Nazi Germany 80 years ago, now echoed by Russia today.

The Baltic Sea has become a battleground for hybrid warfare. From Kaliningrad, Russia conducts widespread spoofing operations targeting neighboring countries. Its military aircraft routinely violate national airspaces. The Russian Baltic Fleet acts recklessly. Undersea cables are repeatedly damaged, incidents that often coincide with the passage of shadow fleet vessels above them.

The region has yet to erupt into open combat zone, but it remains a volatile flashpoint, where Russia flexes its military muscle and probes the resolve of its adversaries.

MEDICAL AID

Lend a Helping Hand to Ukrainian Medical Workers

Donate Towards Ambulances, Hospitals and Medical Equipment to Help Save Lives

Donate