US Intelligence Warns Putin Could Invade NATO While Still Fighting Ukraine

The Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, could launch an invasion of a NATO member while the Russian forces remain at war with Ukraine, according to a US intelligence assessment reported by The Wall Street Journal on August 6.

US intelligence indicates Putin may try to widen the fighting into Europe as a way to break out of the deadlock in his war against Ukraine.

The assessment surfaced amid concern in Washington over shortages of certain critical munitions the US would need in any potential military confrontation with Russia or China.

Analysts outline a broad range of possible moves, from cyberattacks and localized provocations to a limited ground incursion. They do not rule out still more dangerous steps should Putin find himself in a hopeless position.

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War in Ukraine

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A limited ground invasion of a NATO state is still judged a low-probability scenario, since it would activate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and its guarantee of collective defense. Even so, analysts believe that the probability is gradually rising after long being treated as remote.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has forecast that Russia could attack a NATO country within months rather than years. Most intelligence services across the Alliance still place any such move within the next several years.

The prospect of direct Russian pressure on the Alliance is no longer purely theoretical along its eastern flank. Romania's air force intercepted Russian drones on three consecutive days in late July, downing a third unmanned aircraft on July 26 as breaches of NATO airspace continued.

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