- Category
- Latest news
Russia Exaggerates Ukraine War Gains by Over 1,200 km² to Fuel False Victory Narrative, ISW Reports
- Authors
![Photo of Dariia Mykhailenko]( "Photo of Dariia Mykhailenko")
The Russian Ministry of Defense is continuing to artificially exaggerate reports of its forces’ advances in Ukraine in order to sustain the Kremlin’s false narrative that Russia’s victory is inevitable, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on September 25.
ISW analysts drew attention to a statement from the Russian ministry, which claimed that Russian troops had captured at least 4,714 square kilometers of territory between January 1 and September 25, 2025.
The ministry broke down these figures as follows: 205 square kilometers in Luhansk region; 3,308 in Donetsk region; 261 in Zaporizhzhia region; 175 in Dnipropetrovsk region; 542 in Kharkiv region; and 223 in Sumy region.
The Russian Defense Ministry further asserted that its forces had taken control of 205 settlements in Ukraine during this period. ISW, however, reported that it had obtained evidence allowing for an independent assessment, which concluded that Russian forces had in fact seized 3,434 square kilometers since January 1.
According to ISW’s assessment, the Russian Ministry of Defense is overstating its reported advances by 36 percent in Luhansk region; 33 percent in Donetsk region; 5 percent in Zaporizhzhia region; 83 percent in Dnipropetrovsk region; 112 percent in Kharkiv region; and 6 percent in Sumy region.
The Institute for the Study of War emphasized that the Russian Defense Ministry regularly inflates its territorial claims in order to influence Western perceptions of Russia’s military capabilities and its prospects for success.
“The Russian MoD’s September 25 claims are a continuation of these wider efforts to use large amounts of false quantitative data to create the impression that Russian forces are advancing at a fast rate on the battlefield, even though Russian forces continue to advance at a slow foot pace,” the report added.
ISW analysts also pointed out that Moscow frequently uses video recordings of Russian soldiers holding flags in certain settlements as “proof” of their capture.
“The Russian footage only shows small group infiltration missions into areas where Russian forces are unable to secure enduring positions, however. The Kremlin is attempting to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its original war goals on the battlefield in order to force Ukraine and its partners into conceding to Russian demands,” the analysts said.
Earlier, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian forces have encircled and are inflicting heavy losses on Russian units that pushed forward near Pokrovsk, following weeks of intense fighting that forced the front line northward.
-f223fd1ef983f71b86a8d8f52216a8b2.jpg)
