Russian Guided Bomb Airstrikes Halved Following November ATACMS and Storm Shadow Deployments

Russian aerial bomb attacks on Ukraine dropped more than 50% since Western allies permitted Kyiv to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles, Russian media Agentstvo reported on December 12, citing data from the Ukrainian General Staff.

From November 1-20, Russia carried out intense guided bomb attacks on Ukraine, dropping at least 100 bombs daily, except for one day, according to updates from the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The peak came on November 20, with 138 bombs recorded—the last day Russian forces deployed over 100 guided bombs in a single day.

In mid-November, US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to target Russian territory. Shortly after, Ukraine launched British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for the first time.

Since then, the frequency of such attacks declined significantly.

Data for the first 12 days of December indicates that Russian forces launched more than 50 bombs only five times, with daily averages now hovering at 40 bombs or fewer.

Open-source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander suggested the decrease may be linked to the threat posed by Ukraine’s long-range missile capabilities. He noted on X that Russian Su-34 aircraft may have been moved over 600 kilometers from the front line to avoid potential ATACMS strikes. This relocation could negatively impact aircraft maintenance, sortie rates, and flight hours.

Earlier, Chief of the General Staff Anatoliy Barhylevych announced that Ukraine is actively working on the development of domestically produced precision-guided aerial bombs to counter the Russian threat.