Ukraine’s Drone Campaign Set to Weaken Russian Oil Refining Till Mid-2026, IEA Predicts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russian refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, Bloomberg reported on October 14.

Since August, Ukraine has launched at least 28 attacks on key Russian refineries, reducing crude processing by 500,000 barrels a day and contributing to gasoline shortages in several regions, including Crimea.

This disruption has forced Moscow to impose fuel-export restrictions.

As a result of these strikes, Russia’s oil-export revenues dropped to a three-month low of $13.4 billion in September, accordingto Bloomberg.

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How Ukraine's "Kinetic Sanctions" Cripple Russia's War Economy

Sep 15, 2025 15:10

While Russia increased its crude exports to 5.1 million barrels a day, its revenue from oil products fell to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, IEA stated.

The IEA’s latest report warns that this trend will continue, putting additional pressure on Russia’s economy and state finances amid ongoing war expenditures, Bloomberg writes.

Previously, it was reported that the United States has been providing Ukraine with intelligence on vulnerabilities in Russia’s energy infrastructure to support long-range drone strikes, according to Financial Times.

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