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Putin Wants Ukraine to Capitulate by Spring 2027 Through Intensified Strikes, ISW Says
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Russian leader Vladimir Putin aims to force Ukraine into capitulation by the spring of 2027 through intensified combined strike campaigns during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW report points to statements from a prominent Kremlin-aligned military blogger who acknowledged that Russian forces are making virtually no ground advances while Ukrainian forces conduct counteroffensive operations.
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The blogger asserted that Moscow can sustain its strikes indefinitely while progressively increasing pressure on Ukraine.
However, analysts at the ISW suggest Putin may be reconsidering his long-held theory of victory. That theory rested on the belief that the Russian military could sustain an endless offensive until achieving its goals or forcing a Ukrainian surrender.
The institute notes that Putin likely does not expect an endless air campaign, but rather intends to leverage intensified strikes to compel Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027.
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According to the analysis, this strategy relies on Ukraine’s limited ability to intercept jet-powered drones, along with potential shortages of Patriot air defense interceptors during the winter of 2026–2027.
It also assumes that Ukraine’s energy and critical infrastructure will collapse under relentless pressure in the coming months.
"Putin may not be taking into account the long-term consequences of the Russian strike campaign if he expects Ukraine to collapse and capitulate this winter. It is unlikely that Putin will compromise on his demands or enter into serious negotiations on a ceasefire until his new theory is tested," the ISW report concludes.
On September 28, 2026, a Russian attack on central Kyiv struck the Dobrobut Academy, causing a fire on the upper floors of the Dobrobut medical center in the Shevchenkivskyi district.
The strikes, which involved direct drone hits, damaged multiple facilities, including a building belonging to Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, and killed one woman while injuring at least 19 people across the capital. Emergency crews responded to the sites to extinguish the fires and conduct search and rescue operations.
Simultaneously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine and its European partners were actively developing a joint anti-ballistic missile system named "Freyja ," which could become operational within the next 12 months.
He emphasized the urgent need for a stronger, more independent European air shield, noting that while Ukraine was finalizing its proprietary interceptor missile, international partners possessed the advanced radar technologies and key components necessary to make the platform viable.
Zelenskyy warned that the global ballistic threat would continue to intensify due to deepening military cooperation between Russia, Iran, and North Korea, stating that Russia was placing its final bet on ballistic missile strikes against Ukrainian cities to break the population and deprive the country of its ability to defend itself.
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