Russia Faces New Autumnt Mobilization as Offensive Stalls and Losses Mount

Russia may announce a new wave of military mobilization this autumn following heavy battlefield losses and the failure of its winter-spring offensive, The Moscow Times reported on June 2, citing Russian State Duma  Deputy and former defense committee member Andrey Gurulev.

Gurulev noted that discussions about a new large-scale draft are actively circulating in high-level government offices. According to the lawmaker, informed sources indicate that the fundamental decision has already been made and the mobilization is slated for the autumn.

However, pouring more men into the war will not lead to a breakthrough unless Russian forces can counter Ukrainian drones, The Moscow Times noted. Gurulev stated that Ukrainian drones are currently “dismantling infantry” on the approaches and preventing assault groups from advancing, warning that a new draft without tactical changes would simply result in a massive increase in casualties.

Despite a record surge in combat engagements, Russian forces experienced their lowest territorial gains since the start of their strategic offensive in October 2023. According to a June 1 report, Russian troops launched over 7,000 assault operations in May—a 37.5% increase—yet managed to occupy only 14 square kilometers of land.

The degradation of Russian tactical capabilities has resulted in a negative overall change in occupied territory for the first time since the 2023 counteroffensive, as Ukrainian Defense Forces increasingly neutralize small-scale assaults before Russian units can accumulate forces.

The lawmaker also highlighted severe logistical and supply chain issues, specifically pointing to gasoline shortages in temporarily occupied Crimea and ongoing drone attacks along the “Novorossiya” highway. He accused Ukrainian forces of brazenly attempting to sever fuel supply lines to the peninsula and southern troop groupings.

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War in Ukraine

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The frontline situation has effectively stalled, degrading into a brutal positional deadlock, The Moscow Times reported. Gurulev urged Russian leadership to abandon the illusion of an imminent breakthrough, stating that the military faces exhaustion unless command structures are completely overhauled and those responsible for securing supply routes are held strictly accountable.

The anticipated draft comes as Moscow bleeds manpower at an unsustainable rate. Since the beginning of 2026, Russian forces have suffered staggering casualties, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reporting over 145,000 frontline losses—including nearly 86,000 killed—by late May. This depletion consistently outpaces the Kremlin’s recruitment capabilities, burning through reserves in an attempt to sustain momentum.

The prospect of a new draft aligns with earlier warnings from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The think tank previously reported that the Kremlin’s resources for financing the war are nearly exhausted, forcing Moscow to choose between reducing its military ambitions or transitioning to a fully militarized economy with closed borders and mass mobilization.

The bureaucratic foundation for a new draft is being established under the radar. Recent reports stated that the Russian enlistment offices sharply increased the issuance of “mobilization orders” in early 2026, often summoning citizens under the guise of updating personal data.

Human rights groups noted that officials are physically pasting these directives—which contain strict reporting instructions in the event of a general draft—directly into military ID cards. This quiet surge is corroborated by search engine data, with the Yandex search engine recording a nearly fourfold increase in queries related to mobilization orders between January and April.

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