Someone Just Bet $409,000 on Putin Losing Power by the End of 2026

A major bet has appeared on Polymarket wagering that Russian leader Vladimir Putin will lose power before the end of 2026, Forbes reported on July 3.

The bet, worth $409,000, was placed on the “Yes” side of the market asking whether Putin will cease to be Russia’s president by December 31, 2026.

Polymarket is an online prediction market where users can bet with cryptocurrency on the likelihood of real-world events, from politics and economics to sports and pop culture.

Because the platform has repeatedly drawn attention to markets that appear to move around insider information or unusually well-timed predictions, some users treat large bets there as a kind of informal forecasting signal.

The account behind the Putin bet uses the nickname ZnotluvuiSamez and has a profile image showing a Ukrainian flag. According to Forbes, the user has placed several wagers linked to Russia and Ukraine, but the largest so far is the $409,000 bet on Putin losing power by the end of 2026.

At the moment of publication, the bet is worth $440,000.

The market currently gives that outcome only about a 12% probability. If the bet wins, the user could receive up to $2.5 million.

The same trader also placed a $61,000 bet that Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year. That market also currently assigns the outcome a roughly 12% probability.

Forbes reported that the mystery trader joined Polymarket in April and that the account is linked to an empty profile on X.

In addition, a potential military escalation by Vladimir Putin in response to Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia has sparked growing anxiety among Russian elites.

Business communities reportedly fear the state might seize private savings to fund Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Previously, Russian leader Vladimir Putin ordered the fourth expansion of his personal security workforce since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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