Russia May Test NATO’s Article 5 With Limited Attack, Says Former Finnish Intel Chief

Russia is unlikely to pose a large-scale military threat to NATO but may seek to challenge the Alliance by provoking a crisis under Article 5, according to Pekka Toveri, former head of Finnish military intelligence and current Member of the European Parliament.

In an interview with Espreso TV’s “Western Studio” program on January 16, Toveri stated that Moscow’s goal may be to launch a limited operation against a NATO member state, followed by nuclear blackmail in hopes of fracturing Alliance unity.

“The calculation is simple,” Toveri said. “Provoke a split and test whether NATO would truly defend one of its members—or break.”

Read more

Category

War in Ukraine

20 Points of Ukraine’s Peace Plan: Security Guarantees, Reconstruction, EU Membership

Dec 24, 2025 10:14

According to Toveri, despite being bogged down in Ukraine, Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO, with its economy now heavily focused on military production.

“Russia is trying to build new strategic reserves as quickly as possible to be ready for potential conflict with NATO,” he explained. “At the same time, it faces growing difficulties due to Ukraine’s strong defense. Russian forces are suffering increasing losses.”

Toveri cited NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who recently stated that Russia is losing 20,000–25,000 soldiers killed per month in Ukraine—a rate that makes it nearly impossible for the Kremlin to build up large reserves.

Read more

Category

World

Russia Is Mass-Producing 1000-km Iskander Missiles That Can Reach Most of Europe, Leaks Reveal

Dec 18, 2025 13:50

Still, intelligence leaders across NATO are aligned in their concern: while Russia cannot defeat NATO militarily, it may attempt to destabilize the Alliance politically and psychologically.

Toveri warned of a realistic scenario in the near future, where Russia could initiate a small-scale offensive against a NATO country, followed by threats of nuclear retaliation should the Alliance respond. The objective: to trigger hesitation or division within NATO ranks.

“This is not just hypothetical,” he said. “They’re preparing for this—and we must be ready too.”

Earlier, it was reported that US Republican Senator Roger Wicker delivered a forceful speech in the Senate backing Ukraine and sharply criticizing Russia’s leader, urging allies not to trust Vladimir Putin.

Support our frontline reporters

We report from the front lines to show the reality of war. Your support helps us stay there and tell the stories that matter.

DONATE NOW