Russia’s Economic Optimism Crashes as Living Standards Hit Three-Year Low

Russians are increasingly feeling the country’s economic difficulties, with expectations dropping sharply, according to a survey by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), which conducts monthly polls for the Central Bank on inflation, consumer confidence, and savings attitudes, and quarterly surveys on four key economic indicators, calculating indices of economic outlook.

In the fourth quarter, all indices fell, with three of four showing significant declines, signaling worsening perceptions of the economy over the coming year. The living standards outlook fell most, dropping to 85 points in October—eight points lower than in July and the lowest since December 2022. The production outlook index fell five points to 130 points. It remains positive (above 100) and is the only index showing optimism, though it is the lowest since March 2022.

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Responses vary sharply based on personal finances. Those whose situation improved over the past year are far more optimistic about production (147 points) and living standards (115 points), while those whose finances worsened rate production at 107 points and living standards at just 53 points.

Unemployment expectations, measured monthly, rose from 86 to 92 points since September but are down seven points from July’s near-positive 99 points. Corruption perceptions remain largely unchanged at 71 points, historically the lowest of the four indices.

Rosstat  reports a slowdown in economic growth: GDP rose just 0.6% year-on-year in Q3, down from 1.1% and 1.4% in prior quarters. Real wages and disposable incomes are also slowing, while unemployment remains near historic lows at around 2.1–2.2%.

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FOM notes all indices peaked in April 2024 and have mostly declined since. The April rise in 2025 may have reflected hopes for an end to Russia’s full-scale invasion after talks between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, but optimism has waned. Levada-Center’s October survey similarly found only 51% of Russians expect the economy to improve in the coming months, down from 58% in March—the lowest level since early 2023.

Previously, it was reported that Russia may face the risk of an internal conflict due to mounting social, economic, and political tensions, according to Alexander Kharichev, the head of the Presidential Directorate for Monitoring and Analyzing Social Processes.

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