How NATO’s Eastern Flank Confronts Russian Missile Debris and Drone Threats

At Rzeszów airport in Poland, large army-green Patriot Missile Batteries line the runway, their barrels pointing east. With war at its doorstep, Poland, like many of Ukraine’s neighbors, remains on high alert.

Once a sleepy regional airport, Rzeszów has transformed into a bustling hub for Ukraine’s humanitarian and military aid efforts. A contingent of US Airborne divisions is based in the city, which lies just 62 miles from the Ukrainian border. There is a feeling upon landing that one has already stepped into the war. Fully aware of this closeness, Poland has been fortifying its air defenses accordingly.

Missile debris and mysterious drone sightings have become unsettlingly frequent in Poland and other countries bordering Ukraine. Last month Polish Defense Minister, Mariusz Błaszczak declared his country ready to intercept Russian missiles threatening its territory. After months of restraint, Poland is now determined to counter these incursions. To do this, however, it must first gain approval from NATO command, a process often fraught with bureaucracy.

Poland’s frustrations with NATO's approval process echo across the region. Members of the Bucharest Nine—a coalition of NATO countries in Central and Eastern Europe—met in the fall to discuss responses to escalating threats. While all agreed on the urgency of action, their approaches varied.

Poland

Despite a complex history that includes centuries of tension dating back far beyond World War II, Poland has risen to support Ukraine. This important relationship is underscored by the appointment of Ukraine’s newest Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, a former attache in Poland.

The question of air defense remains critical. In November 2022, a stray missile killed two Polish farmers it was the first time a foreign missile had landed in foreign territory. Perhaps more startling than the farmers' extremely bad luck was Poland’s initial response. Initial fears of Russian involvement spared debates about invoking NATO’s Article 5. Ultimately, the incident was deemed accidental, but it exposed Poland’s vulnerabilities and NATO’s reluctance to escalate.

Today, NATO’s stance has evolved. Member states have provided Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, the US and UK have allegedly lifted restrictions on long-range weapons strikes on military targets inside Russia, and stationed a permanent NATO attaché in Ukraine. In January, for the first time, Norwegian F-35 jets took off from Poland to intercept aerial threats, signaling NATO’s deeper commitment to its eastern flank.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of Russia’s “aerial terrorism,” alleging plans to target international airlines. In response, Poland closed the Russian consulate in Poznań, a decisive move against Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics and its ongoing efforts to carry out acts of sabotage on Polish territory, according to Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

Romania

Romania, another NATO member bordering Ukraine, has also faced multiple violations of its airspace. In a recent incident, a Russian drone crossed into Romanian territory during an attack near the Danube River, prompting the Romanian Air Force to scramble F-16 fighter jets. Similar breaches have persisted, raising alarms throughout the fall.

To address these threats, Romania’s Defense Ministry has proposed legislation granting its armed forces greater authority to neutralize aerial threats, including drones. The bill outlines measures such as interception, control seizure, and, if necessary, destruction of unmanned aerial vehicles. Allied forces stationed in Romania would also participate under NATO and EU defense agreements.

Hungary

In November, Hungary announced the deployment of air defense systems near its border with Ukraine, coinciding with the US approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike targets within Russia. Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky framed the deployment as a precautionary measure, stating, “The war has entered its most dangerous phase.” Despite this, Hungary has not reported any recent airspace violations or immediate threats near its borders, suggesting the move is more reflective of concerns about Western escalation than direct security risks. Hungary’s position within NATO often diverges from the alliance’s collective approach, reflecting its unique political stance.

Hungary has also engaged in regional security discussions. During a September 2024 meeting of the Bucharest Nine in Romania, defense ministers from NATO’s eastern flank—including Hungary—expressed alarm over repeated Russian drone and missile incursions. They called for a united NATO response to enhance detection and defense capabilities. However, Hungary’s alignment with Moscow complicates these efforts.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government maintains a controversial relationship with Russia. Hungary continues to make gas payments through Gazprombank, despite widespread Western sanctions on Russia. In December of last year, the US granted Hungary an exemption to allow these payments, further underscoring its economic ties to Moscow. This relationship raises questions about Hungary’s strategic priorities and its commitment to NATO’s collective defense.

Orbán’s cautious stance toward Ukraine contrasts sharply with the more assertive positions of other NATO members. Some speculate that the absence of reported airspace violations near Hungary may be linked to its alignment with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. This dynamic complicates Hungary’s role within the alliance and its ability to balance regional security concerns with its political and economic ties to Moscow.

Slovakia

Slovakia has taken significant steps to protect its airspace and support Ukraine, but recent political shifts have added complexity to its stance. In April 2022, Slovakia donated its Soviet-era S-300 air defense system to Ukraine to bolster its defense capabilities against Russian aggression. Recognizing this contribution, the US deployed a Patriot missile system to Slovakia to ensure continued air defense capabilities.

To further bolster its security, Slovakia established temporary agreements with neighboring countries. Starting in September 2022, Czechia and Poland committed to safeguarding Slovak airspace until Slovakia received its US-supplied F-16 fighter jets. These collaborative measures have underscored Slovakia’s commitment to NATO’s collective defense efforts.

However, domestic politics have introduced new challenges. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Robert Fico, Slovakia’s government has taken a more isolationist stance toward Ukraine. In June 2024, Fico’s administration initiated a police investigation into the previous government’s decision to provide military aid to Ukraine, labeling it “sabotage” and citing concerns about potential risks to Slovak airspace and citizen safety. This marked a stark shift from the policies of Slovakia’s prior leadership.

Slovakia’s foreign policy under Fico has also raised eyebrows among NATO allies. A Slovak parliamentary delegation’s recent trip to Moscow for meetings with Russian officials signaled a potential recalibration of the country’s approach. In response, Poland denied the delegation access to its airspace, reflecting growing tensions between NATO members on the alliance’s eastern flank.

Despite these political headwinds, Slovakia remains engaged in NATO defense initiatives. During the September 2024 Bucharest Nine meeting, Slovak officials joined their counterparts in expressing alarm over Russian drone and missile incursions into allied airspace. While Slovakia’s commitment to NATO’s collective security remains evident, its evolving relationship with Russia and the direction of its new government raises questions about the country’s long-term alignment.

Moldova

Moldova, Ukraine’s only non-NATO neighbor apart from Belarus and Russia, remains a steadfast supporter of Ukraine despite its significant vulnerabilities. Lacking modern air defense systems, the country has long been exposed to aerial threats. Until recently, Moldova’s military relied on outdated equipment, with officials acknowledging the absence of even basic detection capabilities.

A turning point came in December 2023, when Moldova acquired its first modern radar system, the Thales Ground Master 200. This marked a crucial step toward improving its airspace monitoring and defense capabilities. However, modern radar alone is not enough to counter the growing threats posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Recognizing this, Moldova has appealed to Western allies for air defense systems, signaling a departure from its previous policy of avoiding requests for lethal aid.

Moldova has also made strides in strengthening its broader defense infrastructure. Under a newly adopted national security strategy, the government has increased its defense budget and prioritized regional partnerships. Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi confirmed that these measures are aimed at countering the escalating regional tensions fueled by Russia’s aggression.

Domestically, Moldova’s leadership and population have largely aligned with Ukraine and its Western allies. Recent elections reinforced this pro-European stance, with voters rejecting Russian-backed efforts to sow division. However, Moldova’s proximity to the war and its limited military resources make it particularly reliant on support from NATO and EU partners.

The big picture

With Russia testing NATO's resolve, maintaining unity among Ukraine’s neighbors is essential. While incidents such as stray drones or missile debris may seem insignificant on their own, some experts believe Russia is watching to assess NATO's boundaries and gauge Western responses. Retired US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges addressed this concern in an interview, warning of potential escalation.

“We should absolutely assume that Putin will launch missile strikes against not just Ukraine, but perhaps even NATO countries to take out transportation infrastructure,” Hodges stated, referring to a scenario where Putin is not defeated in Ukraine. He emphasized that failure by the West to push back effectively against Russia could embolden further aggression. “Russia is at war with all of Europe,” Hodges added, underscoring the need for decisive action.