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Russia Looks to China Transit as Ukrainian Drone Attacks Paralyze Southern Ports

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A grain field during the early harvest season in the Rostov region, southern Russia. (Source: Getty Images)
A grain field during the early harvest season in the Rostov region, southern Russia. (Source: Getty Images)

Russian grain exporters are exploring new supply routes through China to send grain to global markets, as operations at Azov and Black Sea ports remain disrupted following Ukrainian drone strikes, The Moscow Times reported on October 9.

Speaking at the Golden Autumn 2026 exhibition in Moscow, Russian Grain Association (RGA) executive director Ksenia Bolomatova confirmed that the organization is working on transit options via China.

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Russia’s total export potential is expected to fall from a planned 59 million tons to 39 million tons out of a total harvest of approximately 140 million tons, leaving an estimated 20 million tons of grain without buyers.

Baltic ports allow Russia to supply customers in the Middle East, Türkiye, and North Africa, but reaching Asian markets such as Indonesia from those locations is difficult due to high logistics costs.

To address these bottlenecks, Russia is expanding transshipment capacity in its Far East region, where more than ten terminals have experience handling grain shipments. Additional facilities are being connected, and established operators are building infrastructure to increase storage capacity, according to The Moscow Times.

The delivery problems emerged after operations stopped at Azov Sea ports and Black Sea terminals were paralyzed by Ukrainian drone strikes.

Vladimir Petrichenko, head of the analytical firm ProZerno, estimated that 20 million tons of grain could be left without buyers.

The head of SovEcon, Andrey Sizov, stated, “The harsh reality is that there are simply no export routes that could replace the Black Sea.” Over-supply has already cut grain prices in southern Russia roughly in half, dropping them to 4,000 to 5,000 rubles per ton. ProZerno estimates that carryover stocks could reach 34.8 million tons by the end of the year.

Over the course of a week from July 6 to July 12, 2026, Ukrainian unmanned systems carried out a systematic campaign in the Sea of Azov, striking 90 Russian vessels—including tankers, tugboats, ferries, and cargo ships—before reaching a total of 105 vessels targeted within eight days.

In response to the continuous drone attacks, Russia temporarily suspended navigation through the Don–Azov Canal and stopped processing applications for passage through the Kerch Strait to protect its fleet.

The operation targeted river-sea class tankers and support ships used to deliver fuel to Crimea, transfer crude oil into the Black Sea, and sustain Russian military logistics along the occupied coastline.

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