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ISW: Moscow Inflates Battlefield Success to Weaken Western Support for Ukraine
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![Photo of Ivan Khomenko]( "Photo of Ivan Khomenko")
The Kremlin has launched a coordinated information campaign aimed at overstating Russia’s battlefield achievements and shaping Western perceptions of its victory in Ukraine as inevitable, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On August 30, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed that since March 2025 Russian forces had seized 3,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and captured 149 settlements.
He also asserted that Russian troops now control 99.7% of Luhansk region, 79% of Donetsk region, 76% of Kherson region, and 74% of Zaporizhzhia region, while advancing in areas near Kupiansk, Lyman, and parts of Dnipropetrovsk region.
ISW analysts concluded that these claims significantly exaggerate Russia’s actual gains. The institute estimates that since March Russian forces have captured about 2,346 square kilometers and 130 settlements—far fewer than reported by Gerasimov.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov further stated on August 29 that Russian troops are capturing 600–700 square kilometers each month.
ISW, however, assessed average monthly advances at 440–500 square kilometers in June, July, and August, noting that these figures illustrate slow, incremental progress rather than decisive breakthroughs.
According to ISW, the Kremlin seeks to influence Western policy by portraying its offensive as advancing rapidly and presenting Ukraine’s defeat as unavoidable.
This narrative, analysts say, is designed to pressure Ukraine to concede to Russian demands and to encourage Western governments to scale back military and financial support.
ISW emphasized that Russia’s reported territorial gains do not account for the scale of losses its forces continue to sustain. The institute noted that Russian advances remain extremely slow by the standards of modern mechanized warfare, often no faster than the pace of infantry movement.
Russia also endured particularly heavy losses during the winter of 2024 while achieving limited results.
“Any assessment of Russia’s military effectiveness must consider both the rate of advance and the losses incurred to achieve it,” the report states.
“The Kremlin’s presentation of inflated statistics without critical context is likely an effort to manipulate perceptions of Russian strength and reinforce its longstanding narrative of inevitable victory. This is not the case.”
Earlier, Ukrainian partisans reported that Russian soldiers from the 24th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Kherson deliberately set fire to their own vehicles to avoid being sent to frontline positions. The unit faced heavy losses and was ordered into combat without proper electronic warfare protection against Ukrainian drones, leading some troops to sabotage equipment and abandon their posts.
