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Russia Can Fire 100 Ballistic Missiles a Month at Ukraine Without Depleting Stockpiles, HUR Says
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Russia is capable of launching up to 100 ballistic missiles per month against targets in Ukraine while maintaining a stable stockpile.
The estimate was provided by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) in response to an inquiry from Ukrainska Pravda on May 4.
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According to HUR, Russia’s defense industry plans to deliver up to 700 9M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander operational-tactical missile system in 2026, matching production levels recorded in 2025. Monthly output of the missiles is estimated at between 55 and 60 units.
The agency also reported a significant increase in the production of RM-48U missiles used by S-300PM and S-400 air defense systems, which Russian forces have adapted for strikes against ground targets. More than 480 of these missiles are expected to be produced in 2026, compared with just over 200 in 2025. Current production rates are estimated at up to 50 missiles per month.
In addition, Russia plans to manufacture up to 60 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles this year, according to the intelligence assessment.
“Given these production rates of ballistic missiles, the enemy can employ up to 100 such missiles per month against targets on the territory of Ukraine while maintaining a stable level of its stockpiles,” HUR stated, according to Ukrainska Pravda.
Against this backdrop, Ukraine’s air defense forces intercepted more than 57,000 Russian aerial threats during May 2026, including 111 missiles and tens of thousands of drones.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, air defense units engaged a broad range of Russian weapons used in attacks across Ukraine throughout the month. Among the targets destroyed were two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, 50 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 10 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 11 Kalibr cruise missiles, 14 Kh-59/69 guided air-launched missiles, and 24 Iskander-K cruise missiles.
Unmanned aerial vehicles accounted for the overwhelming majority of intercepted targets. The Air Force said Ukrainian defenders shot down 5,053 Shahed-type attack drones, 1,316 reconnaissance drones, and 50,894 UAVs of other categories during May.
Ukrainian forces also continue targeting the reconnaissance assets that support Russian missile operations, as Ukrainian border guards from the Strix unit have shot down a rare Russian Skat 450M reconnaissance drone in the Southern Slobozhanshchyna sector, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service reported.
According to the service, Russian forces use the drone to identify targets and provide targeting data for strikes carried out by Iskander tactical ballistic missile systems. The value of a single Skat 450M is estimated at approximately $400,000.
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