#Middle strike

Russia is losing its logistics capabilities, especially in Crimea and the southern occupied territories of Ukraine. If current loss rates continue, truck shortages could become one of the main operational constraints on Moscow’s campaign in 2026.

The Russian government is scrambling to prevent a domestic fuel crisis. Following a series of successful Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and energy infrastructure, the world's self-styled petrol station has found itself without enough fuel to meet its own internal demand, at the height of the holiday season and the agricultural calendar. Avoiding the resulting social pressure will cost Russia tens of billions of dollars.

Following Ukraine's latest strikes, the Crimean peninsula has been left without access to fuel. Petrol sales to civilians have been banned, with supplies reserved exclusively for emergency services and the military. Ukraine has effectively sealed the peninsula off logistically, leaving only one route open: the Crimean Bridge. The only question is how long that will last.