Russia Escalates Border Strikes as More Drones Enter NATO Airspace. We Mapped the Rise Since 2022

Sep 29, 2026 16:15

11 min read

Prefer U24 Media on Google

Authors

Joseph Place

Author

On September 24, a Russian drone crashed in Romania and a; F-16 jets were scrambled, and during the same period, drones entered Moldovan airspace and one also crashed. On September 13, Russia sent a drone that hit a train just 2km from the Ukrainian-Polish border. On September 9, Russia struck a Moldova-Ukraine border checkpoint, killing two civilians. This is just a few of the many times Russia has hit borders and violated the airspace of countries in Europe. 

Evidently, during September 2026, Russia sent multiple drones into the airspace of other countries, including NATO members, sometimes crashing, and President Zelenskyy said Russian drones attacked Moldova twice while he was in transit. Poland closed Lublin and Rzeszów airport and evacuated two border points on September 24, due to the increased threat of further strikes.

Russian attacks on border areas and violations of European airspace are increasing, alongside a growing number of drones and missiles entering and crashing into neighboring countries. Had some of the drones and missiles targeting areas near the border traveled slightly farther, they could have killed people beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Russian strikes along Ukraine's borders with other European countries

Russia’s border strikes have significantly escalated over time, with more in 2026 than in the previous year. The strikes on checkpoints disrupt the transport of goods and people, but also risk the lives of people on both sides of the border. Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported 11 attacks on border checkpoints, but if we include attacks on border infrastructure as well, the number is higher.

Russian missiles and drones entering neighboring European states have also massively risen over time. By counting reported attacks, 2026 has recorded almost as many confirmed and likely Russian-origin incursions as 2024–2025 combined. The likely cases are those in which the drones and missiles match those used by Russia, even if officials didn’t formally designate them as Russian origin or took place during Russian attacks on Ukraine. 

The count used here excludes incidents in which drones were launched inside Europe, including many mysterious drone sightings across Europe in 2025, or those hard to verify, and focuses on drones and missiles. These counts are likely incomplete due to the lack of confirmation of drone origins and discrepancies with official statistics and reported data. 

However, these confirmed incidents paint a picture of the increase in these incursions. The count comes from a dataset by Heiko Pleines at the Research Center for East European Studies at the University of Bremen, and includes recent incidents not included in the sample, as well as some recently reported incidents. 

Where has Russia struck along Ukraine's borders?

The vast majority of these attacks have hit Ukrainian border areas near Romania and Moldova. In September 2026, however, Russia also struck near the border with Poland. The strikes have targeted critical infrastructure, including border checkpoints, communications infrastructure, ferry crossings, bridges, roads, and railways.

Here is a breakdown of the reported border strikes since 2022, which clearly shows the increase in attacks over time:

2023

• 26 Sep — Orlivka, Ukraine — Romania border

• 6 Oct — Orlivka, Ukraine — Romania border

2024

• 2 Oct — Orlivka, Ukraine — Romania border

2025

• 13 Feb — Reni, Ukraine — Moldova border

• 22 Nov — Orlivka, Ukraine — Romania border

• 2 Dec — Bolhrad, Ukraine — Moldova border

• 18 Dec — Maiaky–Udobne, Ukraine — Moldova border

• 19 Dec, 04:10 — Maiaky–Udobne, Ukraine — Moldova border

• 19 Dec, 14:15 — Maiaky–Udobne, Ukraine — Moldova border

2026

• 20 Aug — Reni, Ukraine — Moldova border 

• 21 Aug — Tabaky, Ukraine — Moldova border

• 25 Aug — Vynohradivka, Ukraine — Moldova border

• 1 Sep — Orlivka, Ukraine — Romania border

• 6 Sep — Orlivka, Ukraine — Romania border

• 9 Sep — Starokozache, Ukraine — Moldova border

• 13 Sep — Yahodyn, Ukraine —  Poland border

Which European countries have Russian drones and missiles entered?

Russian drones and missiles have entered the airspace of neighboring Poland, Romania, and Moldova, as well as countries farther away from Ukraine, including Latvia and Lithuania. There have also been drone and jet incursions near Swedish territory and Finland, and the Russians have repeatedly jammed and redirected Ukrainian drones as well. 

Read more

Category

World

Russia Is Redirecting Ukrainian Drones Into NATO Airspace. What Can be Done?

Jun 08, 2026 15:36

This does not count other drones launched by Russia from an unidentified local site, like those that tried to attack a plane in Leipzig, Germany, although these incidents are a separate type of attack. 

Here is a breakdown of key reported incursions into European airspace, as well as strikes and crashes on European territory, involving Russian drones and missiles or weapons strongly suspected to be Russian based on their flight paths, timing, and identifiable characteristics. 

Note: this is not totally exhaustive, and an incursion may involve multiple drones. 

2022

• 10 Oct — Rîbnița / Soroca / Popencu, Moldova — Russian cruise missiles

2023

• 10 Feb — Mocra (Rîbnița) / Cosăuți (Soroca), Moldova — Russian cruise missile

• 5 Sep — Plauru, Romania — Russian drone debris/impact

• 11 Oct — Plauru, Romania — Russian drone impact/crater

• 29 Dec — Zamość area, Poland — Russian cruise missile

2024

• 24 Mar — Oserdów, Poland — Russian cruise missile

• 24–25 Jul — Plauru / Periprava / Ceatalchioi, Romania — Russian Geran drones/debris

• 7 Sep — Gaigalava, Latvia — Russian Shahed

• 8 Sep — Periprava, Romania — Russian drone entered Romanian airspace

• 24 Sep — Plauru, Romania — Russian Geran-2

• 10 Nov — Căușeni / Borosenii Noi, Moldova — Russian drones

2025

• 17 Jan — Plauru area, Romania — Russian drone incursion

• 12–13 Feb — Ciumai / Ceadîr-Lunga, Moldova — Russian drones

• 16 Feb — Taraclia–Petrovca / Burlăceni–Vynohradivka, Moldova — two drones

• 2 Mar — Giurgiulești area, Romania — Russian drone with warhead

• 10 Jul — Šumskas/Kena area, Lithuania — Russian Gerbera

• 28 Jul — Vilnius–Gaižiūnai area, Lithuania — Russian Gerbera with explosive charge

• 20 Aug — Osiny, Poland — Russian drone exploded

• 10 Sep — multiple locations, Poland — mass Russian drone incursion; debris found at Czosnówka, Cześniki, Wyryki, Wohyń, Oleśno and other locations

• 13 Sep — Chilia Veche / Pardina, Romania — Russian Geran

• 19 Nov — Săiți / Tocuz / Opaci, Moldova — drone incursion

• 18–19 Nov — Periprava / Foltești / Oancea, Romania — Russian drone incursion

• 25 Nov — Vulcănești / Dondoșeni / Orhei / Bender / Vadul lui Vodă / Cuhureștii de Jos, Moldova — six drones

• 25 Nov — Chilia Veche / Galați, Romania — two incursions

• 28–29 Nov — Vărăncău, Moldova — two Gerbera drones

2026

• 25 Feb, 2026 — Sfântu Gheorghe, Romania — A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace

• 26-27 Feb, 2026 — Tulcea County, Romania — A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace during attacks near the Danube

• 13 March — Pardina, Romania — A Russian drone was caught on camera by a resident 

• 26 Feb — Øresund, Sweden — Swedish navy jammed a Russian surveillance drone

• 14 Mar — Ucrainca / Troițcoe, Moldova — Shahed drone crashed in Moldova

• 17 Mar — Crocmaz / Căplani / Tudora, Moldova — Shahed-type drone found

• 18 Mar — Palanca, Moldova — Shahed drone violated Moldovan airspace

• 26 Mar — Parcheș, Romania — Russian drone crashed

• 30 Mar — Șipca / Dubăsari / Orhei, Moldova — Shahed-type drone entered Moldovan airspace

• 3 Apr — Tudora, Moldova — Shahed drone entered Moldovan airspace, making it the third in one week

• 13 Jul — Copanca, Moldova — Russian Geran-2 with warhead explodes near a village 

• 27 Jul — Sulina area, Romania — drone incursion into Romanian airspace, and one drone was shot down

• 30 Jul — Tarnawa-Kolonia, Poland — Russian cruise missile struck a field 

• 20 Aug — Etulia, Moldova — Shahed/Geran-2 entered Moldovan airspace

• 20 Aug — Grindu / Galați area, Romania — a drone entered and crashed

• 22 Aug — Căplani, Moldova — Shahed/Geran violated Moldovan airspace

• 27 Aug — Palanca / Căplani / Crocmaz–Purcari area, Moldova — five drones entered Moldovan airspace during an attack on Ukraine

• 8 Sep — Mihăilenii Vechi, Moldova — A Geran-like drone exploded in Moldova

• 14 Sep — Palanca, Moldova — drone incursion into Moldova

• 14 Sep — Cioburciu / Pervomaisc, Moldova — second drone incursion

• 15 Sep — Pratkūnai / Kaunas area, Lithuania — Russian-made Gerbera shot down by NATO fighter

• 17 September — Tudora, Moldova — A drone entered Moldovan airspace amid Russia’s massive attack on Odesa

• 24 September — Suceava County, Romania — a Russian drone crashed during an attack on Ukraine 

• 24 September — Briceni, Soroca, Florești, and Camenca areas, Moldova — at least 4 Russian drones entered Moldovan airspace

Overall, we see a gradual increase, with a steeper rise in 2026; the count will likely continue to rise. Moldova alone reportedly experienced 39 incursions in 2026 so far, compared to 17 the previous year, showing the escalation.

How are European countries responding to the Russian drone incursions?

After drones entered Moldovan airspace, their President, Maia Sandu, said, “Russia's war endangers all of Europe. We condemn this war and stand with Ukraine.” 

Romanian President Nicușor Dan said that Romania is not ready for drones yet,  but it has improved. Poland has recently increased security along its Ukrainian border to prevent future incidents by building fortifications following the recent strike. NATO and other eastern-flank members announced plans to strengthen air defense capabilities, including by increasing the number of aircraft and radars, as well as producing anti-drone systems. These measures come in response to the growing number of Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace. 

"Border crossings in Poland—as has previously been the case in Moldova and Romania—are being targeted in an attempt to discourage people and deter countries from supporting Ukraine," Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said to the private broadcaster TVN. Russia will likely attack those countries supporting Ukraine with drones and missiles in the coming months, Prime Minister Donald Tusk also said on September 17. 

Generally, Europe’s eastern flank is bolstering its air defenses by expanding production, working with Ukraine on counter-drone capabilities, and establishing additional air defense systems. However, there are still obstacles, namely a lack of investment and regional asymmetries in prioritization and approach. 

Read more

Category

World

Which European Countries Are Most Battle-Ready on the Eastern Flank in 2026?

May 08, 2026 18:16

Why are Russian drone and missile incursions increasing?

These attacks are part of a deliberate strategy against Europe, alongside acts of sabotage, Shadow-fleet activity, espionage, and other methods, the US-based defense think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on September 16.

The ISW says that the goals are to disrupt NATO support for Ukraine, intimidate European states into halting support, gain intelligence on NATO defenses, and normalize Russian attacks, among others. 

“ISW now assesses that some Russian airspace violations in conjunction with strikes in Ukraine are intentional, however, and both intentional and unintentional violations enable the Russian military to test NATO air defenses and erode the meaning of NATO’s Article 5 collective defense provision.”

GLOBSEC researcher Tomáš Nagy, who specializes in air defense, cautioned that not every incident is necessarily deliberate, with some likely the result of spillover from Russian attacks on Ukraine. But even then, the incidents mount.

It becomes increasingly hard to argue none of it is intentional.

Tomáš Nagy

GLOBSEC Researcher

Speaking on Russia’s air campaign intensifying even as its forces struggle to make significant gains on the ground, Nagy says, “It’s a little paradoxical, but it’s not accidental.” 

Even Russia’s hardline nationalists acknowledge that its ground offensive is faltering. Now, Russia is deploying growing numbers of jet-powered drones and a steady number of missiles, allowing Moscow to sustain attacks on Ukraine at a high rate. 

“The air campaign aims to achieve two effects,” Nagy said. “One is inflicting mounting damage on Ukrainian society until the political pressure on Kyiv's leadership to make concessions becomes hard to resist. The other is to Ukraine's Western backers, where the message is that no matter how much material support flows in, the trajectory in the air doesn't change. Obviously, here the aim is to weaken that support.” 

These incursions into NATO are related but distinct from the attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, he said. Nagy says the goal is to “demonstrate that Russia has tactical initiative and that Europe can’t credibly defend every inch of its territory.” This is a “structural feature” of air defense rather than a failure on Europe’s part. 

How can Europe defend itself?

While the political will and prioritization exist, the industry has not caught up, Nagy said. Air-defense output and broader defense production remain insufficient despite increased funding, political backing, and public acceptance of the need to strengthen Europe’s defenses.

However, supporting Ukraine’s air defense and its adaptation to Russia’s current air campaign, including jet-powered drones and large numbers of missiles, is Europe’s best option in the near term, he said.

“Ukraine has adapted before,” Nagy said. “It’s reasonable to expect it to do it again, provided it has the financial, political, and industrial backing to do it.”

There is one key issue still facing Ukraine that needs to be addressed, which could help European defense. 

“The much harder problem is ballistic missile defense,” Nagy explained, “where the West has essentially run down its stocks of counter-ballistic interceptors, and the next generation of systems, SAMP/T NG, the anti-ballistic variant of IRIS-T, and Ukraine's own Freya project are more likely to deliver results in the medium term than the short term.” 

Help Ukrainian Units Hold the Drone Line

Download APP