Can War in Europe Be Avoided? Interview with Martin Sklenár, Ex-Slovak Defense Chief

On August 24, 1991, Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union. More than 90% of Ukrainians confirmed that choice in a referendum, setting Kyiv on a path to sovereignty. As Ukraine marks its 34th Independence Day under the constant Russian air assaults, the answer to whether Europe can remain at peace depends largely on Ukraine’s survival.

“Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity play a critical role for security in Europe,” tells us Sklenár. “If Russia manages to get territorial concessions, it will remain a constant threat to European security.”

Martin Sklenár, former Slovak Defense Minister and current head of the Future of Security Programme at the GLOBSEC think tank, he has spent more than two decades shaping security policy across NATO, the EU, and Washington.

A sovereign Ukraine fully integrated into the EU and shielded by strong transatlantic security guarantees, Sklenár argues, would be a “cornerstone of European security,” adding deterrence with its battle-hardened armed forces and defense industry that “will continue to provide invaluable input into the development of European capabilities and industry capacities.”

The risks of waiting

European intelligence services estimate Russia could regain full military strength within five years. Sklenár warns: “If Europe does not build up enough military strength in the next 3-5 years, it will risk a military conflict with Russia.”

Already, Russia has expanded its military budget, with 2025 war spending projected to rise from $142 billion to $170 billion. 

“If Europe does not strengthen itself enough, it will be the reason for less security,” Sklenár says. “Future negotiations on the resolution of the war in Ukraine cannot end with limitations on Ukraine’s and Europe’s military capabilities. Without limits on Russia’s military capabilities, such a decision would be the basis for further deterioration of European security and stability.”

Why concessions won’t bring peace

Talk of negotiations often returns to whether Ukraine might concede territory. Sklenár stresses the long-term danger:

• In the short term, concessions may look like peace.

• In the long term, Russia will have learned that force changes borders, and will act again.

“Deterrence in Europe will be significantly strained,” he explains. “Russia will stick to its aggressive actions in Europe. Other countries will also see a clear signal that it is possible to change borders through force. In Europe—but also beyond—there are many regional situations in which the current fragile status quo could be under threat of collapsing. Especially in the Western Balkans, these situations could quickly unravel into conflicts.”

Can war in Europe be avoided?

Sklenár is blunt: “War in Europe is already a fact and cannot be avoided; it can be stopped.”

“Russia can stop the war immediately, if it decides to stop the aggressive full-scale invasion against Ukraine,” he says. “We see no intention of Russia to do so; to the contrary, it seems that Russia wants to use the ongoing momentum about potential peace negotiations as a way to keep up and potentially intensify its military operations in Ukraine.”

Stopping it requires scaling up defenses now—what Sklenár highlights is the rational way. He points to Europe investing “at the agreed level of 5% of GDP”—NATO members pledged the increase for defense by 2035, up from 2% now—and building resilient infrastructure. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has also recently called on Alliance members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, citing Russia’s rapid militarization and the evolving global security landscape.

That resilience must also extend to hybrid threats: cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage. Europe must be able to “react quickly, limit the damages, and reconstitute fast.”

“Europe's relationship with the US should be clearly defined and confirmed by actions as a strategic one,” he says. “Based on mutual benefits in economic, political, and defense domains, the Transatlantic unity should be translated into a strong position in the global Great Power competition.”

Citizens on the frontline of resilience

But the responsibility is not just for governments. 

The most important—and also the most difficult—change to accept for people is that the world will not be the same as it was 5 years ago.

Martin Sklenár

Head of the Future of Security Programme at the GLOBSEC think tank

Ordinary Europeans, Sklenár says, need to shed illusions: “The idea that there cannot be war in Europe is over. The possibility has to be on the minds of everybody.”

He insists public support is essential for increased defense spending, even at the cost of social welfare. “Decisions of people and governments have to be made on the assumption that weakness invites instability and threatens economic prosperity.” Citizens must hold their leaders accountable: ask what they are doing to counter Russia’s aggression, and be ready for sacrifices to preserve security and prosperity.

“This situation is not something Europe has chosen,” says Sklenár. “But it is something Europe has to do to be able to protect its people, their way of life and their future prosperity.”

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